H4 EURUSD Forecast: price break below the trend line for a short position

EUR to USD Forecast

Contents

Introduction

The EURUSD pair is a major currency which the online brokers find attractive to trade.

We anticipate how the EUR/USD pair reacts to the recent news about the virus vaccine distributed soon by the U.S. authority. It’s a big boost for the U.S. currency and the economy.

Fundamentals

Euro Zone

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

Forecast 56.0 previous 58.2

This report is based on the survey carried out on the managers’ purchasing managers of about 800. It is asked about the country’s economic conditions in terms of prices, production, employment rates, and supplier deliveries.

A measurement above 50.0 indicates expansion in the manufacturing industry, and below 50.0 means there is a contraction in the system.

If the published data for flash is more prominent than the projection, it is suitable for the currency, while a more economical outcome indicates a bearish outlook for the Euro.

The U.S.

C.B. Consumer Confidence

The research carried out on households of about 3000 was asked to rate the country’s economic conditions and business conditions and view its future.

Financial confidence is a good leading indicator for consumer spending, which tells the overall economic activity we shall see during the holiday season sales (Black Friday).

If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is suitable for the U.S. dollar, but the effect will be a weak currency for the U.S. dollar if the data is lower.

The Forecast is 97.7 while the Previous was 100.9

EUR vs. USD Bigger Picture: Bullish bias

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly

Monthly Resistance: 1.21545, 1.20114

Monthly Support: 1.14950, 1.10292

As we see the month coming to an end, the major currencies are getting more robust with the news about the covid-19 vaccines that will have a better impact and be distributed soon.

The monthly chart trend is still bullish, and the price can close above the resistance of 1.20114 for it to continue. Also, the price can be pushed back if it fails to close above that resistance.

Weekly Chart Bullish

Weekly Resistance levels: 1.20114, 1.19207

Weekly Support levels: 1.16124, 1.1422, 1.12430

For weeks the resistance zones have been a challenging area for the bulls; having tested the levels without a breakthrough, can they breakthrough this week? Only time can tell us.

If the bulls are successful, we shall see the trend for a bullish rally. However, if it closes below the 1.16124 support level is a reversal of uptrend to a downtrend, and the 1.12430 level will be the target.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish

Daily

Daily Resistance: 1.20111

Daily Support: 1.16960

For a long time, the resistance level has been rejecting the EURUSD pair’s price from those zones anytime the bulls advances to those levels.

We shall be watching the price’s reaction to seeing how the market will respond as it approaches the resistance zone for another retest.

If this movement should go beyond the 1.20111 zones, we shall see a continuation of the uptrend, but if the bears are strong, the price will drop down to the 1.16960 support level.

H4

H4 Resistance level: 1.18856

H4 Support level: 1.18000

The EURUSD pair has been bouncing on the trend line with an upward movement, and the recent trend has not been able to break through the resistance levels of 21st October 2020.

If the bulls rally should fail at the zone, we may see the price break below the trend line for a short position, and the rally will drop down towards the support level of 1.161016.

However, if the bulls can push higher, we will likely see the 1.18856 level give way.

Bearish Scenario:

If the price fails to go higher than the resistance of 1.18856, we shall see a correction to the downside.

Bullish Scenario:

A bullish scenario based on the weekly time frame is probable until we get a definite close above the weekly resistance levels (1.20114) for the bullish trend.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The recent news about the virus vaccines is considered safe after being tried and studied in large clinical trials.

Investors are looking out for a brighter tomorrow with the hope that the covid-19 vaccines can be produced and distributed globally to stop the rapid spread of the virus as the second pandemic is a treat to the recovery process of the economy.

About
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James Martin

I'm based in London ( England, UK )
I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.

EURUSD Weekly outlook – 26th November 2020