BTCUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis
Contents
Introduction
For the first time since the Bitcoin price entered the weekly overbought area, the RSI threatens to close below the level-70 to show a drop in speculative demand as revealed on Binomo broker. However, BTCUSD technical analyst like Cred and Josh Rager are still macro bullish on the crypto giant (BTC), as they claim that the Fear of Missing out (FOMO) is responsible for the vertical price surge.
Bitcoin Fundamentals
Bitcoin: In the news
HodlHodl: P2P BTC Exchange Launches Support for Lightning Network
According to a Medium article issued on 5th June ’19, HodlHodl, a P2P Bitcoin (BTC) exchange announced support for Lightning Network.
In the announcement, the exchange claimed that everyone could buy and sell Bitcoin right from the firms’ Lightning wallet.
Following a successful implementation on the test network, the company claims that the procedure won’t be different from the usual HodlHodl transactions.
The exception being that funds are held in the company’s Lightning wallet, thereby protecting purchaser and dealer from scams, as well as having faster, and cheaper contracts.
The P2P company stress that the implementation does not affect other parts of the platform and that multi-signature on-chain Bitcoin contracts on the platform remain non-custodial.
Technical Analysis
BTCUSD: Weekly Chart
After entering the overbought territory on 06 May ’19, the Bulls took advantage of further price rally for three weeks before taking out some profits.
The weekly time frame shows possible price correction as the BTCUSD currently threaten to close below the 8005.0 bullish accumulation support level 0f 27 May ’19.
By the end of the week, if the Bitcoin price closes below the 8005.0 support, we should expect a 38.2% or 50% price retracement.
A weekly closing price that’s greater than the 8005.0 level indicates the presence of buyers and confidence to continue the bullish campaign.
BTCUSD: Daily Chart
From the daily chart perspective, the BTCUSD simultaneously signaled regular bearish divergence with a dark cloud cover and selling pressure pattern.
The support level of 7436.4 is crucial for the formation of a hidden bullish divergence setup as the MACD makes lower low compared to prices current higher low.
A price close below the reference support of 7436.4 changes the price pattern altogether.
As the RSI currently cross below the level-50, a higher value than the level-50 from below will confirm the bullish rally.
BTCUSD: H4 Chart
Early take profit signals were triggered on 30 May ’19 11:00, following a regular bearish divergence, alongside a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern.
Having a regular bearish divergence setup on both the daily and 4hour time frame is critical and increases the chances for the price to plummet, as it later did after a price close below crucial support on 02 June ’19 23:00.
Although the bearish accumulation resistance on 03 June ’19 23:00 was thought to be weak considering that the RSI was coming out of oversold, the bulls could not breach the 7989.0 resistance at the time.
BTCUSD: H1 Chart
From an intraday chart perspective, the pair on 02 June ’19 08:00 left the overbought territory. Further increase in selling pressure forced the price below bullish support on 02 June 19 19:00 setting up resistance at 8753.9
Bullish moves such as the regular bullish divergence on 04 Jun ’19 18:00 may be all the bulls need for a price rally.
Conclusion and Projection
Considering that speculation accounts for a higher for the higher percentage of bitcoin transactions, we maintain a long term (Monthly chart) bullish outlook on the BTCUSD, with the price blowing through the $10,000.00 round number going forward.
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I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.
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